Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is going to take a little more time before finalizing the “Qualified Mortgage” rule – establishing the guidelines for determining a borrower’s “ability to repay” a residential mortgage. The original comment period ended in July of last year and the agency was expected to issue a final rule by the end of this month.

April showers are supposed to bring flowers in May. But the month’s economic reports produced more weeds – the kind that could choke off a recovery – than blossoms signaling its growing strength.

Color the May employment report disappointing, with a capital ‘D’. Rising unemployment claims had indicated that all might not be well in the labor market, but no one predicted the dismal numbers the Department of Labor reported: Employers added only 69,000 jobs in May – well below the far from robust gain of 158,000 the consensus forecast had projected. The unemployment rate increased slightly – to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent – and, adding statistical insult to injury, the lackluster April gain of 115,000 jobs was revised downward to 77,000.

Consumer advocates and many economists have been arguing for some time that short sales represent a viable alternative to foreclosures, benefiting lenders and borrowers alike.  It appears that more lenders are beginning to agree.