Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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“But soft, what light through yonder window breaks?” Is it possible that the sun is finally breaking through the clouds that have blanketed the economy for the past five years? It is always dangerous to read too much into a single report or a series of them, but it is hard not to detect a brightening sky in the positive economic data that have been accumulating with reassuring consistency over the past few months, topped most recently by the January employment report.

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A Federal Reserve white paper urging more aggressive government action to strengthen the ailing housing market is attracting considerable attention – and drawing fire from Republican lawmakers and some economists, who think government should be reducing, not expanding, its housing role.

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The long-anticipated “robo-signing” agreement resolving complaints about foreclosure abuses in multiple states is expected this week, but it’s not clear at this point how many state attorneys general will go along with it. That list seems to change day-by-day.

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The economic indicators, which have been pointing erratically upward for much of this year, moved decisively into positive territory in December, with the December employment report providing an encouraging exclamation point at year-end.