Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Since the beginning of this year, financial industry executives have been trying to assess the impact of the mortgage-related rules the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been issuing in a steady and widening stream.  Now they are wondering which of those rules will remain in place and considering the prospect that the agency’s structure and powers may be radically changed. 

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The “fiscal cliff” has become a bogeyman for our time – a shapeless monster hiding under beds, lurking in closets, and haunting Congressional hallways, threatening to leap from the shadows and devour the economy in a large, greedy gulp.

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FHA officials have acknowledged that the agency is facing serious financial pressures, but the problems may be even more serious than reports to date have indicated. An analysis of loans approved in 2009 and 2010 found that the foreclosure risks are well above average, threatening losses that could exceed $20 billion. That projected loss would be in addition to the $13.5 billion deficit identified in an agency audit citing exposure related to the collapse of the housing market.

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Struggling to bolster reserves depleted by loan losses that are threatening the solvency of its insurance fund, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is increasing premiums on the low-down-payment home mortgages the agency insures. The increase, equaling one tenth of one percent of the loan amount, is the second the agency has implemented this year in an effort to avoid what would be the first taxpayer bailout in its 78-year history.