Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Is this recovery for real? We’re not talking about the economic recovery, which remains, by virtually all accounts, really slow. We’re talking about the housing recovery, which, until recently, was almost universally acknowledged to be a dim prospect, if not an unlikely one, at best.

If you can’t say something nice, it’s going to be virtually impossible to talk about what’s happened to the middle class, which “has endured it worst decade in modern history,” according to a Pew Research Center report.

The economy is looking a lot like a seesaw. Manufacturing activity, which had been up, is down; housing, which had been not just down but subterranean, is now ascendant, and other sectors are tilting one way or the other, sliding up some months and down in others, without moving very far in either direction. The resulting picture reflects an economy with sufficient energy to sustain a recovery (albeit, as modest one), but with enough areas of weakness and uncertainty to make additional action by the Federal Reserve likely and probably imminent.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is planning to change the rules of the mortgage lending game in ways large and small.