Fed’s High Wire Inflation Fighting Effort Risks Triggering a Recessionary Fall

Imagine a high-wire act performed without a net.  That describes the Federal Reserve’s effort to curb inflation without crashing the economy.  Success will bring applause and relief; failure, a brief downturn, at best, with a prolonged recession the worst case outcome. 

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Is the housing boom creating a dangerous bubble?  In every boom-and-bust real estate cycle – and there have been a lot of them – experts have suggested and consumers have believed that the boom they were seeing, unlike all the others, would not be followed by a decline.  And every boom-bust cycle in the past has proven them wrong. 

Reports on housing market conditions during the past year have chronicled the disconnect between an economy hobbled by the pandemic and a housing market that seems to exist in an alternate universe, seemingly unaffected by lockdowns, job losses, and economic uncertainty. 

The housing market is crazy!  More than one industry professional has reached that conclusion, watching trends that seem inconsistent, if not contradictory. 

The December employment report was a good news-bad news-good news story. The good news:  Employers added nearly 50,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell, after remaining essentially flat for the previous two months.