Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Consumers are feeling better about the housing market, and the housing market appears to be feeling better about itself.

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Recession fears, which had been inching higher, receded somewhat in October, as employment growth, low interest rates, and signs of life in the housing market offset concerns about a decline in manufacturing activity, anemic business activity, and slower worldwide economic growth.

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Analysts reached for superlatives – “blowout” and “blockbuster” among them ─ to describe November’s surprisingly strong employment report.  Employers added 266,000 workers to their payrolls, blowing well past the 187,000 economists had predicted.  October’s anemic 128,000 gain was revised upward slightly, to 156,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5 percent.  Average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents – a 3.1 percent year-over-year gain.

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The recession concerns that have been humming quietly in the background grew louder this month as the hiring pace slowed and some key economic indicators slid.  Employers added 136,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate (3.5 percent) hit a 50-year low.