Fed’s High Wire Inflation Fighting Effort Risks Triggering a Recessionary Fall

Imagine a high-wire act performed without a net.  That describes the Federal Reserve’s effort to curb inflation without crashing the economy.  Success will bring applause and relief; failure, a brief downturn, at best, with a prolonged recession the worst case outcome. 

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After several months of declining home sales, analysts have begun using the f-word ─ falling ─ to describe the housing market’s trajectory. “The housing market is stumbling through its longest slump in four years, as the divergence between a booming U.S. economy and weakening home sales that many had dismissed as temporary now looks poised to continue,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

Summer temps have been heating up but the employment market cooled slightly in June. Employers added 213,000 workers for the month, beating less optimistic expectation, but lagging May’s total of 244,000 – revised upward from the 223,000 reported initially.

What has been a quiet hum of concern about the housing market has grown louder, reflected in the comments of industry analysts and in headlines such as these: “Home Buyer Demand Cools Off”; “Housing Market Showing Signs of Cracking”; “Is the High-Flying Housing Market Heading for a Fall?”

What has been a quiet hum of concern about the housing market has grown louder, reflected in the comments of industry analysts and in headlines such as these: “Home Buyer Demand Cools Off”; “Housing Market Showing Signs of Cracking”; “Is the High-Flying Housing Market Heading for a Fall?”