Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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It’s not surprising that reports of the impressive – actually, astounding – increase in the nation’s third quarter growth rate were drowned out by the pre-and post-election noise. 

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The COVID pandemic has created a cluttered and confusing financial landscape.  It’s hard to know where to look or how to interpret what you see.  Consider the housing market.

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If home sales alone were an indicator of economic health, you might conclude that the economy has rebounded smartly from the pandemic-induced recession and is on a path for steady growth. 

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If timing is everything, the June employment report is a lot less encouraging than it appeared to be.