Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Summer temps have been heating up but the employment market cooled slightly in June. Employers added 213,000 workers for the month, beating less optimistic expectation, but lagging May’s total of 244,000 – revised upward from the 223,000 reported initially.

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If economic reports were songs, you might be humming the monthly reports from memory. The numbers have been changing from month to month, but the tune has remained the same. June was no exception. Once again, the reports tell us: The economic recovery, already the longest on record, continues.

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What has been a quiet hum of concern about the housing market has grown louder, reflected in the comments of industry analysts and in headlines such as these: “Home Buyer Demand Cools Off”; “Housing Market Showing Signs of Cracking”; “Is the High-Flying Housing Market Heading for a Fall?”

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April produced a mix of indicators, some stronger than others, but most landing firmly on the solid end of the performance spectrum.