Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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What began as a ripple of concern about a few isolated foreclosure actions is threatening to reach tsunami proportions, possibly delaying or reversing thousands of foreclosures nationwide and adding further insult to the housing market’s already substantial injuries.

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The two indicators currently creating the most angst for economists and policy makers (employment and housing) produced some moderately encouraging signals at the end of the month - sufficiently positive to ease concerns about a recessionary double dip (a little), but not enough to eliminate those fears entirely.

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September employment report disappointed just about everyone, from the job seekers looking for a sign that their prospects are improving, to Democrats, hoping the statistics would not be used to batter them at the polls in November, to economists, who had predicted that the numbers would be weak – but not this weak.

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If analysts subscribed to the “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything” philosophy, they wouldn’t be saying much about the Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP), the Obama Administration’s flagship foreclosure assistance initiative. What they are saying continues to be largely, if not entirely, negative.