Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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As Bob Dylan noted many years ago, “You don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.” You also don’t have to be a banker today to know that consumers are furious about overdraft fees and to see that Congress and federal banking regulators are going to do something about them.

Putting the best face on the subprime crisis, multi-billion dollar losses, inflation risks recession fears, and other equally distressing headlines dominating the financial news today, you might conclude that these are certainly interesting times. But then, you might also recall the old Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times,” which tells us that interesting times are also often unpleasant and almost always uncomfortable.

As the steepest downturn since the Depression begins to yield, slowly, to signs of recovery, economists, who had been focusing on whether the downturn has ended, are now debating how the recovery will unfold: Will it be a “normal,” robust, v-shaped recovery, with an upward trajectory almost as steep as the downturn? Or are we facing what some are calling a “new normal” — a recovery redefined by prolonged, persistent unemployment and reshaped by a profound, long-term shift in consumer psychology?

The Treasury Department’s first published review of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) results to date did nothing to refute complaints that the centerpiece of the Obama Administration’s foreclosure prevention efforts is falling well short of expectations.