Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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The Senate Banking Committee finally approved a financial reform bill without winning the bi-partisan support the committee’s chairman, Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) had sought.

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Consumers accusing banks of charging “abusive” overdraft fees on debit cards cleared a major hurdle recently, when a federal district court judge refused to dismiss their class action suit. 

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Perhaps one month, we’ll be able to tell you that the economic signals are clear, pointing unambiguously up or down. But not this month. Despite growing evidence that the economy is improving (albeit more slowly than most would like), and notwithstanding welcome strength in the March employment report, the economic indicators remain stubbornly mixed, enough so in the housing market that some analysts see a threat of a double-dip that will bring further home price declines before the market stabilizes.

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Manufacturing activity and retail sales are gaining strength but consumer confidence has dipped (again); the February employment numbers were better than expected, but home sales disappointed most analysts and the commercial real estate market is beginning to scare just about everyone.